What If They Repealed Obamacare?

By Author: pangsiyan
Total Articles: 130
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On their way to Washington last week, Tea Party activists stopped in Lansing, Michigan. And among the officials who addressed them was Mike Cox, the state's Republican attorney general. Cox recently announced he would be among more than a dozen state officials filing lawsuits challenging the constitutionality of health care reform. And, at the rally, he whipped the conservative crowd into a frenzy: Can't you just see them running around (Washington) D.C. saying, ‘So much to spend, so much to spend, so little time to spend it'?

Most legal experts seem to think the lawsuits won't succeed. Among other things, it turns out that the U.S. fought a large war, about a hundred and fifty years ago, in order to settle the issue of state nullification. But if the officials filing these suits seem not to understand that history-or at least, not to care about it-their opposition to the Affordable Care Act, like their supporters', seems genuine. If they had their way, their states really would reject the new health care law.

Particularly since many of these officials are running for even higher office, it's worth asking: ...
... What would happen to their states if they succeeded?

Consider Michigan, where Cox is running for governor and where, it so happens, I live. Despite the state's economic troubles, the percentage of residents without health insurance is actually lower than the national average. Still, it's more than 1.1 million people-and there would be even more of them in the next few years if we were stuck with the health care system we have today.

But we're not stuck with the health care system we have today. Reform is now law of the land. And, as a result, there won't be an increase in uninsured. In fact, the number should fall—dramatically.

Thanks to the Affordable Care Act, the vast majority of the would-be uninsured should gain access to affordable insurance. Based on the official estimates, around 400,000 of them will get it through Medicaid, which the Act will expand. Most of the rest will get them through the new insurance exchanges-that is, the new regulated marketplaces through which individuals and small businesses will be able to purchase the same sort of coverage large businesses get.

The people shopping in the exchanges should have more choices than they do today and the choices will be, by and large, good ones: plans with comprehensive basic benefits, no exclusions or higher rates for pre-existing conditions and lower. Those who can't afford even these reduced premiums will be eligible for generous tax credits, so that premiums never go higher than around 10 percent of income.

Does Michigan's Cox prefer a world in which families making $45,000 a year miss out on thousands of dollars in tax credits? Where people with pre-existing medical conditions have to pay astronomical rates on coverage, if they can get insurance at all? Does he think those 400,000 people set to get Medicaid coverage would be better with no insurance? And, if so, has he taken this up with the professionals and hospitals struggling, every day, to provide charity care for these people?

To be sure, Cox and his supporters aren't necessarily very worried about the uninsured. Recent polling suggests the Tea Party movement is relatively affluent and their protests certainly suggest their primary concern is that reform could diminish the insurance coverage they currently have. (They seem unaware that the market will likely diminish that coverage all on its own.)

driver from www.tnr.com