Contenders For 2012 Kentucky Derby - How To Spot Them Early

By Author: Lee Lane-Edgar
Total Articles: 365
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Last time we talked about come home times in spotting prospective 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders, but something that is often overlooked is the horses stride length.

Another thing to look for is a horse that seems to have a nice long stride. The horses that have a really quick turn of foot generally are sprinters, and the horses that have the longer, loping sorts of stride generally are better at longer distances. Also, shorter striding horses seem to excel early in their two year old season and seem not to improve as much as the longer striding counterparts. Progeny of the famous sire A.P. Indy usually have very long strides, and it is no coincidence that they tend not to achieve much as two year olds, but rather blossom as three year olds, the age at which they are eligible to run in the Kentucky Derby.

Certain horses just have the look of a sprinter to them. They are usually a bit more compact in their build and when they run, you can see that their feet “turn over” at a much faster rate than they types of horses you see running in marathon races, who have a bit slower turn of foot and sometimes have a ...
... slower grinding style. Of course the slow turn of foot horses make up for it with longer stride length. If a horse bolts out of the gate and are the type that make the lead in the first few jumps, then the chances are they are not going to be able to run the 1 ¼ mile distance of the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Even very speedy front running horses that have won the Kentucky Derby are not particularly fast out of the gate generally. The great Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew was never the first out of the gate, but required five or six seconds to accelerate before he made his accustomed lead.

For example, the first big race for two year olds on the East Coast is the Grade 2 Sanford Stakes at Saratoga, which is run at six furlongs. The horses that are precocious enough to win this race are generally better at going shorter distances. In fact, no winner of the Sanford Stakes has won the Kentucky Derby since Affirmed in 1977. Promising Sanford winners in the past such as City Zip in 2000, More than Ready in 1999, and Scat Daddy in 2006 proved that 1 1/8 was about their upper distance limitation.

So you generally don’t want to get too excited about horses winning these early sprint stakes races as two year olds. Overdriven is the 2011 Sanford winner and certainly is talented, but it is too early to make a judgment on him, and it is best to wait until at least the Hopeful Stakes at seven furlongs, and then the Champagne at one mile before we can assess his talents properly. Like many Sanford winners, Overdriven may have blossomed early, like a child star, but like many child stars that can’t make the adjustment into adulthood,he may end up peaking at a young age. When the real running begins next year, and the longer stride, slower turn of foot types mature and improve as they become three year olds, he may find himself in deep waters.