Kentucky Derby - Early Contenders 2012

By Author: Lee Lane-Edgar
Total Articles: 365
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Figuring out who is going to win the Kentucky Derby is one of the most difficult puzzles in all of sports, but as nebulous as it seems sometimes, there are specific attributes and achievements that most Kentucky Derby winners possess.

We still have a long way to go and it is a bit early to be scouting out prospective 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders, but as the year progresses and the two year olds begin to mature and stretch out in distance a bit more, there are certain markers that signal the horse will be a solid Kentucky Derby prospect. What are these signs you should be looking for?

I generally will not even think about analyzing a horses chances for next years’ Run for the Roses if he has not run at least six furlongs. Most two year olds have not even made their racing debut, and among those who have, most have raced at 4 ½ to 5 furlongs, and very few have raced beyond even 5 ½ furlongs.

As of late July 2011, the six furlong Sanford and the six furlong Hollywood Juvenile Championship are the only two six furlong stakes races that have been run for two year olds. Overdriven won the former, and Majestic ...
... City won the latter.

Good time is not enough, you want to see if the horse is coming home strong. Does it appear that he is exerting himself about the same as he was down the backstretch? In a six furlong race, a horse ought to come home in about 12 seconds flat or better in order to be considered a contender to stretch out successfully in stakes races. Uncle Mo in his maiden debut at six furlongs, ran his final furlong in 11 and 3/5 seconds. After watching that race and seeing his final time and closing time, I was confident that he would be successful at longer distances – he went on to take the 1 mile Champagne Stakes and the 1 1/16 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and became the two year old 2010 Eclipse Award champion.
For races of these distances, you want to see good come home times as well. For example, in a one mile race, you want to see the horse come home in under 25 seconds. Close to 26 seconds implies that perhaps the distance of the race is catching up with him, and his stamina is limited. And in 1 1/16 mile races, we generally want to see a horse running his last sixteenth of a mile in 6.3 seconds or less. Uncle Mo in the Champagne came home in 24 seconds flat and in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile he ran his final sixteenth in 6.27 seconds.

We all know that Uncle Mo had his problems as a three year old, but the Uncle Mo I saw in late 2010 is exactly the type of horse that can excel in the Kentucky Derby.

In 2007, Street Sense won the BC Juvenile by 10 lengths, and came home his final sixteenth in about 6.09 seconds, which is unusually fast for a horse at that early stage in his development. From that moment on, it was clear to me that he was the one to beat for the Derby, especially since the BC Juvenile was run at Churchill Downs, the same venue as the Kentucky Derby. He was the 2007 Kentucky Derby winner.

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