Longshot Bet For The 2011 Belmont Stakes: Mucho Macho Man. Tell Us Your Play For The Race

By Author: Lee Lane-Edgar
Total Articles: 365
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It wasn’t too long ago that Mucho Macho Man was considered one of the “now” horses. He went off as the third betting choice in the Preakness, the odds being 5-1 on him. He showed a nice closing kick in the Kentucky Derby, and almost cost Nehro the runner up place, but ultimately settled for third.
Many expected him to run a big race in the Preakness as he seemed to be moving forward at the right time, but he disappointed in that race, finishing sixth, beaten 7 -½ lengths.
I don’t think his Preakness was truly representative of his ability however. In the Derby, he finished several lengths in front of eventual Preakness winner, Shackleford, but in the Preakness, he was only able to get within 7-½ lengths of Shackleford. Did Shackleford improve appreciably or did Mucho Macho Man just throw in a sub-par race?
Shackleford may have improved but likely only a length or two off his Derby effort. He surely would have been run down by Animal Kingdom if the race had been the length of the Derby, and probably would have finished at least a length and a half behind him at the wire had the Preakness been 10 ...
... furlongs. He finished 3 ¾ lengths behind Animal Kingdom in the Kentucky Derby, so he may have improved a couple lengths.
Furthermore, Mucho Macho Man finished about 7 lengths behind Animal Kingdom in the Preakness whereas he got within less than 3 lengths of him in the Derby. A possible explanation for his failure to get closer to these top two Preakness finishers lies in the official chart, which notes that he broke outward and brushed with Dialed In, and then later steadied after the 1 mile marker. These two obstacles could not have helped him and may account for his subpar performance.
Even if the less than ideal trip cannot account for his mediocre performance, his closing third place finish in the Kentucky Derby was for real, and seeing is believing – he was closing nicely and even inching toward Animal Kingdom in the final sixteenth of a mile.
In addition to being a somewhat forgotten horse, the other reason that Mucho Macho Man might be a good long shot pick is because he has that long striding grinding style that often does well in the Belmont. What is required for the Belmont is a horse that will drop the bridle, relax, and settle in to a nice easy rhythm down the backstretch until his jockey is ready to make his run turning into the homestretch. The explosive kick that helped past Derby winners such as Monarchos, Giacomo, and Mine that Bird, and Smarty Jones proved to be less than ideal for the longer 1 ½ mile marathon distance of the Belmont Stakes.
Mucho Macho Man is also the baby of the bunch, being a June foal. When he raced in the Derby and Preakness he was technically still 2 years old, and being a big long legged grinder, the additional three weeks between the Preakness and Belmont Stakes during which he may mature a bit can only help him.