What Is Next For Soldat?

By Author: Lee Lane-Edgar
Total Articles: 365
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Following his disappointing fifth place finish in Sunday’s G1 Florida Derby, his prospects for the 2011 Kentucky Derby are now questionable. Many horses have been entered in the Kentucky Derby off of a disappointing prep race, but none of these horses have won. A few those come to mind are Birdstone in 2004 that finished fifth in the Lanes End, Deputy Glitters in 2006 who finished sixth beaten 15 lengths in the Wood, and Bluegrass Cat in 2006 that finished fourth beaten 21 lengths in the Blue Grass.

Sometimes horses come out of nowhere and run unexpectedly well, such as 68-1 long shot Shackleford who gave the winner Dialed In a lot of trouble in deep stretch before giving way. Other times, horses such as Soldat, who was the 3-2 favorite and expected to do well, will, for whatever reason, just throw in a bad race. Who knows, maybe he just ate a bad carrot for breakfast?

Consider that in the G2 Fountain of Youth, winner Soldat beat 5th place finisher Shackleford by 23 lengths in that race, but in the Florida Derby, Shackleford turned the tables and bested Soldat, who finished 5th, by over 10 lengths. It just goes ...
... to show you never can tell with horse racing.

His fifth place finish in the Florida Derby was the first time in eight career races that he had not finished either first or second. In some ways, the race was just a little too bad to be believed. Remember Big Brown in the Belmont a few years back? He came back to win his next two races including the G1 Haskell, so sometimes you just have to put a line through a performance and if the trainer says he is fine, then just assume he is going to bounce back next race.

And, according to trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, Soldat exited the race in good condition and is still inclined to run in the Derby but wants to talk it over with the owners.

History is not on Soldat’s side, however. Among the last 15 Kentucky Derby winners: Super Saver, Mine That Bird, Big Brown, Street Sense, Barbaro, Giacomo, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, War Emblem, Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus, Charismatic, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, and Grindstone – thirteen of fifteen either won or ran second in the prep race immediately preceding the Kentucky Derby. And even when a horse ran second, they typically have a close finish. 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver lost the Arkansas Derby by a nose, 2007 winner Street Sense came in second in the Blue Grass in 2007 by a neck, and 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide lost the Wood Memorial by a half length.

Monarchos and Real Quiet also finished second in their prep, but they got within two lengths of the winner. Even Giacomo and Mine That Bird, the two longest shots in recent memory in the Kentucky Derby both finished fourth in their prep race, but even they came within two to three lengths of the winner.

Soldat will have to buck the trend of recent history – coming into the Derby with a fifth place finish, beaten over 10 lengths will not be easy. And recent history seems to stress that you have to at least have run a good race prior to the big one, even if not a winning one.

Then again, ever since I witnessed 50-1 long shot Mine That Bird upset the Kentucky Derby in 2009 coming off an 82 Beyer Speed figure, anything is possible…