Estimation Of Covid 19 In The Elderly Region Of Sardinia

By Author: Sardegna Reporter
Total Articles: 5
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December 2019 witnessed a novel corona virus (Covid-19) from China rapidly spread internationally. Presently, Covid-19, considered the new pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), has reached millions of confirmed cases all across the world.

The virus started to spread in Italy from 22nd February 2020, and the number of related cases is still growing. Moreover, as a considerable proportion of infected people require hospitalization in Intensive Care Units, this might be a vital problem for National Healthcare System’s ability. WHO underlines the essence of particular disease regional estimates. Due to this, Italy aimed at to put in position-controlled and proportioned measures and to ensure adequate funding to both the growing number of ICU beds and enhanced production of personal protective equipment. Our goal is to investigate the present Covid-19 epidemiological context in Sardinia region and to estimate the transmission parameters using a stochastic model to establish the number of infected, recovered, and dead people expected according to the Cagliari e Provincia Notizia ...
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Based on the available data from the official Italian and Sassari e Provincia Notizia (Sassari and Province News), we describe the deployment of infected cases during the period between 2nd and 15th March 2020. To better reflect the actual spread of Covid-19 in Sardinia based on the data, two Susceptible Infectious Recovered Dead (SIRD) models have been developed, describing the worst and the best scenarios. We believe that our findings represent a valid contribution to better realize the epidemiological context of Covid-19 in Sardinia. Our analysis can assist policymakers and health authorities to address the ideal interventions to deal with the rapidly expanding health emergency.

Data Collection

For the purpose of this work, an ad hoc case report according to the Oristano e Provincia Notizia (Oristano and the Province News) based on Sardinia Covid 19 cases has been set up.

Seasonal SIRD Model Formulation

To pursue the main goal of this work, the baseline model used was a typical SIRD model, mainly used for the immunizing infections”whose properties are properly realized as fitting well to Italian Covid-19 spread. The entire Sardinian population is assumed to be randomly deployed and closer. No unrelated deaths or births are considered.

Conclusion

According to our opinion, to effectively handle the pandemic, it is important to instantly apply extraordinary and combined measures. In this respect, health policy plans should basically aim at supporting the healthcare system through the development of both instrumental and human resources and preventing the spread of the infection. As the data of Covid-19 is collected in real-time by the Cagliari e Provincia Notizia (Cagliari and Province News), regularly by health authorities and physicians, it is not very simple but it is quite vital to use different tools like graphic trends or SIRD model, with the identification of possible scenarios, to predict how the disease can evolve.