For Russia, A Tough Match

By Author: PAOLO BRERA
Total Articles: 62
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And 'what is a difficult passage through Russia. After more than five years of economic growth at a rate of 7% per year, in 2008 the rate of growth of GDP fell to 5.6% in 2009 and has experienced a fall of 7.5%. The country was hit by the rapid fall in energy prices but also by the "supernova" of subprime and financial crisis that it has followed. For the current year forecast by the IMF indicate an increase of 1, 5%: a recovery, but almost unnoticeable, with the practical certainty that continuation of the current apnea consumption.
Domestically, the fall in production has led to a dose of horse social instability in Russia, the social safety net is pretty scarce. Unemployment rose and many companies have simply stopped paying wages to employees. They hold, however, relations with foreign countries. In the period from January to September of 2009, the balance of trade in goods and services has been positive, like in previous years: the activities and results of 61.6 billion dollars, a figure of respect. And if the foreign exchange reserves decreased slightly, the use of debt esteroè was insignificant: the debt itself ...
... is even contract slightly. In a working meeting of the Government, which aired on television as a routine in December, the finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, said that in 2010 the national debt will increase. "If the debt is equal to the end of the year to 9.8% of GDP next year, if all debts contrarremo planned both at home and abroad, will come to 12.8%," Kudrin has assessed , noting "that the world has seen the security level to 60%." To which the President of the Federation, Dmitri Medvedev, annotated: "It is therefore a debt easier to manage." No doubt. But international resources have become necessary to cover a budget deficit that has come to 6,3-6,4% of GDP in 2009, given that in 2009, state revenues have dropped 25%, while output rose by 28, 4% and this despite the extensive use that was made by the Kremlin to the resources of the stabilization fund formed in good years with a share of oil revenues. In 2010, the main supportive measures should be gradualmenteritirate. But the situation will improve for sure because the world economy is expected to have recovered somewhat and this will increase both volumes and prices of oil and gas exported from the country.
December was marred by some thunder, thankfully, not followed by real lightning, in relations with Ukraine and Belarus. The usual emergency gas co-Kyiv, one that led to two supply crisis in the European Union, has been accommodated in some way: the Ukrainians have paid the arrears and the gas is flowing normally to Europe. The other State, Belarus, preached to join the monetary union next venture with Russia and Kazakhstan, is still at stake for the gas and has given some headaches with the oil that passes through its territory not only to go EU but also to supply the exclave (exclave, yes) of Kaliningrad on the Baltic. Behind these problems in the short term but there is a Russian strategy is very clear: play the international supply of oil on the tables to provide business owners access to Russian energy distribution networks, which would increase Moscow's grip on Europe .
Looking ahead, the years 2008 to 2011 will likely be seen as a setback in the rise of economic and geopolitical position of Russia, rather than as a final retreat. But the passage is difficult, because it enjoys the consent of the authoritarian Vladimir Putin (now prime minister) depends essentially on the continuous improvement of standard of living: that today, however, is losing ground.
Author: Paolo Brera.
Photo: Alexei Kudrin.