Implications Of Chancellor George Osborne's Manifesto On A "northern Powerhouse"

By Author: Bradley Weiss
Total Articles: 272
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The idea transcends elective politics. With Government devolution, the drive toward affordable housing north of London might strengthen the UK economy more broadly.



When Chancellor George Osborne started talking up the future economic prospects of Manchester and England’s North region in late 2014, many cynically believed it a ploy to curry votes for the Conservatives in the May 2015 election. But in the months that followed, indicators surfaced that suggest Osborne meant what he said. This should interest investors who believe that not all roads lead to London.



UK land investment, after all, pretty much follows the money. For anyone looking for capital growth properties, it only makes sense to buy and build where people are moving, where companies are hiring and where businesses are being established and growing. So is that happening – now or soon – in the cluster of cities that comprise what Osborne referred to as the “Northern Powerhouse?”
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Perhaps. But this is not Osborne’s baby alone. Leading the charge away from the Capital City is the private sector’s own Jim O’Neill, the former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management. O’Neill’s ‘retirement’ job is to chair an independent commission that looks to make Britain less centred on London and with economic forces spread about the whole of the country. His belief, shared by many including George Osborne, is that a redistribution of industry, finance, transportation, digital technologies and population will net out with a stronger UK overall. O’Neill concurs with many others who believe this also requires a redistribution of government authority.



Investors who might deem themselves capital growth partners would likely agree that this devolution of authority is a worthy strategy and with plenty of precedent. Germany, France and Italy have multiple cities that are as large or larger than their own capitals, to their advantage. As O’Neill observes, England suffers from London being almost too successful.



"I think it [the success of London] generates a lot of vitality, but it results in huge complications because you see these enormous distortions, particularly on things like house prices,” he says. “For young people, they finish university and think 'When are we going to London?', because it is the only place you can go. There is something a bit unhealthy about that."



He also notes that a great part of the population of London is made up of a very global polyglot, for better or worse. The British are largely found elsewhere.



The Office of National Statistics pegs shares of the UK economy by region, with London getting 22.2 per cent of GVA. Taken together, the North East, North West and Yorkshire and The Humber constitute a respectable 19.0 per cent. The trick is to get them working collectively. Away from the Capital, growth is a function of infrastructure, the energy economy (fossil and renewables), transportation, and improvements in broadband capabilities that can help with digital industry development.



The Guardian reported after the election that Osborne might have been making real promises after all. The nine councils of Greater Manchester now will have one elected mayor, and a devolution deal gives the municipality control over its transport budget, £500 million of skills spending and a £300 million housing investment fund. Residential properties away from the Capital are more affordable, but a need for more building to meet population growth and outsized demand exists in Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool and other cities as well.



The critical housing shortage and unmanageable cost of housing in London might drive all this in the end. Already young adults, particularly those equipped with knowledge economy skills, are leaving London for more affordable lives in Liverpool, Leeds, Manchester and other points north and west. Capital investments in the growth of commercial and residential developments increasingly make sense when these exoduses are counted and analysed.



O’Neill advocates strongly for regional organisations of cities (he has tried to coin the name “Manpool,” for joining Manchester and Liverpool, football allegiances notwithstanding) as a means to unlock the potential for growth, building, repopulating and revitalising the city centres. He clearly has George Osborne on his side, which certainly helps.



Investors in property funds or other assets, in the South, West, Midlands and North, need to consider all variables in developing a risk-reward analysis. Discussing a strategy with an independent financial advisor is strongly recommended.