Demand For Indian Steel Is Expected To Slow Down But To Grow At A Cagr Of 8.0% : Bharatbook

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Indian Steel Industry Report ( http://www.bharatbook.com/Market-Research-Reports/Indian-Steel-Industry.html ) gives evaluation of overall demand of steel products.
World crude steel production declined from 1,344 mn tonnes in CY 2007 to 1,329 mn tonnes in CY 2008China continues to dominate

Global Scenario
World's crude steel production has reached a level of 1,329 mn tonnes in CY 2008 but declined by 1.1% on YoY basis. During the period CY 2001-2008, the world crude steel production has grown at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.9%. Growth in crude steel production was mainly driven by emerging countries such as China and India which registered a CAGR of 18.7% and 10.6%, respectively, during the same period.

With global economic meltdown in CY 2008, global crude steel production in each month, post the month of August, has registered a negative growth on YoY basis. China produced about 502 mn tonnes of crude steel but the growth has slowed down to 2.6% as compared to 15.8% recorded in CY 2007 and 18.8% in CY 2006. India remained the fifth-largest crude steel producer, registering a growth ...
... of 3.7% on YoY basis.

Domestic Steel Industry
India's finished steel production has increased from 35.4 mn tonnes in FY 03 to 52.8 mn tonnes in FY 08, registering a CAGR of 8.3%. During the same period, finished steel consumption has grown at an incremental CAGR of 11.9%. Demand of steel in the country has been growing at a multiplication factor of approximate 1.2x-1.3x of the growth rate of the economy. Construction sector in the country is the largest consumer of steel and accounted for about 52% of the total finished steel consumption in FY 08.

India's exports of finished steel have remained almost stagnant in the range of 4-5 mn tonnes in the past six years. But import of finished steel has grown from 1.5 mn tonnes in FY 03 to 6.5 mn tonnes in FY 08, registering a CAGR of 33.8%. In FY 08, India turned into a net importer of finished steel as country's import rose by almost 46% on YoY basis.

Input Scenario
India has self sufficiency in iron ore but for coking coal it has to mainly rely on imports. Iron ore production in the country has increased from 123 mn tonnes in FY 04 to 204 mn tonnes in FY 08, registering a CAGR of 13.9%. In FY08, India produced about 204 mn tonnes of iron ore, out of which the country consumed about 100 mn tonnes and 104 mn tonnes of iron ore was exported out of which about 80% of exports were made to China. Country's coking coal import has increased almost two fold in the past six years. In FY 08, India imported about 22 mn tonnes of coking coal. Coke which can be directly used in BF is also not available in plenty in the country. Imports of coke in the country have increased from 2.2 mn tonnes in FY 03 to 3.8 mn tonnes in FY 07.

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