Forecasting Methods- Project Performance Concept

By Author: Adam Donald
Total Articles: 16
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Determine variances. Earned value management uses specific equations to quantify variances. PMP prep classes will include exercises on this. Determine the impact the variances may have on the cost and schedule of the project and well as in other areas.

Forecasting Methods: Forecasting is the process of predicting future project performance based the current performance to date. PDU for PMI credit will include forecasting method concepts. Forecasting methods may be classified in the following categories:

Time series Method: This method uses historical data to estimate future outcomes.

Causal/Econometric Methods: This method assumes that it is possible to identify the underlying factors that might influence what is being forecasted. For example, sales of ice cream might be associated with weather conditions. Examples include regression analysis using linear regression or non-linear regression, autoregressive moving average (ARMA), and econometrics.

Judgmental Methods: These methods incorporate intuitive judgments, opinions, and probability estimates. Examples include composite surveys, Delphi method, ...
... and technology forecasting.

Communication Methods: Status review meetings can be used to discuss information and the progress and performance of the project. A reporting system provides a way for the project manager to convey information to the stakeholders. PDU for PMI will include communication methods. This can be done using table reporting, spreadsheet analysis, and presentations.

Requested Changes to some aspect of the project are often generated as a result of project performance analyses. Requested changes are processed through the integrated change control process.

Recommended Corrective Actions include changes needed to bring the expected future performance of the project in line with the project management plan. Recommended corrective actions are documented and become part of the historical database for both the project and the performing organization. Documented corrective action includes:

The Causes of Issues
The Reasoning Behind Chosen Corrective Actions
Other Performance Reporting Lessons Learned

In this task, the project manager manages changes to the project scope, schedule and costs, updating the project plan. In addition, the project manager communicates approved changes to the project team. The objective of this task is to ensure the revised project goals are met. PMP Prep Classes will include exercises on this.

Configuration Identification provides the foundation in which product configuration is defined and also verified. Configuration identification also provides the basis for how products and documents are labeled and how changes are managed.

Configuration Status Accounting effectively captures, stores, and accesses information regarding configuration items and changes to configuration. Configuration verification and Auditing verifies that configuration items are correct, and that related changes are properly tracked and implemented.

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