Intellinews - Croatia Country Report

By Author: Bharat Book
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The IntelliNews Croatia Country Report comes out monthly, and covers the major macroeconomic indicators and trends in Croatia, as well as important political and business developments. Prepared by IntelliNews analysts who are ‘on the ground’ and native to the region, it provides a review of important development supported by accurate data from a wide range of often hard to get statistics, plus our take on what the developments mean.

Summary
The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and rating agency Fitch urged Croatia to immediately launch fiscal consolidation in order to preserve the market confidence, restore debt sustainability and avoid a rating downgrade. The country should implement structural reforms to maximising the benefits of its pending EU accession. Meanwhile, the new government, which stepped into office in December, adopted a 2012 budget, targeting a deficit of 2.8% of GDP based on an anticipated economic growth of 0.8% and inflation of 2.4%. The cabinet plans to hike the VAT rate to 25% from current 23% as of March, thus bringing in additional HRK 2.5bn to the 2012 budget. Both the IMF ...
... and the EBRD see the GDP rising around 1% this year after expanding 0.25% in 2011. http://www.bharatbook.com/market-research-reports/croatia-market-research-report/intellinews-croatia-country-report1.html

The IMF, however, warned that without fiscal adjustment, the budget deficit would linger at close to 6% of GDP in the medium term, while the public debt will rise to about 70% of GDP in the medium term from end-2011’s 45% of GDP. Newly released macroeconomic data showed Croatia’s industrial output shrank 1.2% last year in comparison with 2010. Yet, December output was up 1.2% on the year and 0.5% on the month. December retail sales dropped by a real 0.4% on the year rose by a monthly 13.9%, while new car sales climbed an annual 5.3% in January. Croatia’s jobless rate increased to 18.7% in December from 17.9% a month earlier, while the labour productivity in the country rose 2.9% in 2011. market research book

Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW 4
Croatian govt adopts 2012 budget, targeting deficit of 28%/GDP 4
Croatia needs to urgently start credible medium-term fiscal consolidation – IMF 4
Croatia’s fiscal policy is key factor for rating after positive EU vote – Fitch 5
EBRD lowers Croatia's 2012 GDP growth forecast to 1% 5
World Bank calls for structural reforms, fiscal consolidation in Croatia 5

REAL SECTOR 6
1 GDP 6
Croatia's GDP to contract more than 1% in 2012 - survey 6
2 Industry and Trade 6
Croatia's industrial output up 12% y/y in Dec 6
Volume of Croatia's industrial orders down 26% y/y in Dec 7
3 Labour Market 8
Number of registered unemployed in Croatia remains flat y/y at end-Jan 8
Croatia's unemployment rate up to 187% in Dec from 179% in Nov 8
Croatia's average net salary up by nominal 26% y/y in Nov 8
Croatia's labour productivity up 29% in 2011 8
4 Tourism 9
Croatia's foreign tourist arrivals up 65% y/y in Dec 9
Croatia's cross-border arrivals increase 07% y/y in Dec 9
Foreign vessels on cruise in Croatia down 29% in 2011 9

FISCAL SECTOR 9
Croatian c-bank governor calls for fiscal consolidation via permanent measures 9
Croatia’s new 25% VAT rate ranks it among European countries with highest tax 10
Croatia hopes to attract EUR 264mn from privatisation in 2012 10

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION 11
Croatian banks’ 2011 combined pre-tax profit up 98% to EUR 622mn 11
Croatian bank assets increase 43% y/y at end-December 12
Croatian bank loans' growth decelerates further to 49% y/y at end-Dec 12
Croatian bank deposits up 49% y/y at end-Dec 12
Croatian banks' capital adequacy up to 1915% at end-2011 12
Zagreb bourse turnover up 23% m/m in January 13

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Intellinews - Croatia Country Report

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