Intellinews Montenegro Country Report

By Author: Bharat Book
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The IntelliNews Montenegrin Country Report is a monthly report, covering the major macroeconomic indicators and trends in Montenegro, as well as important political developments. Prepared by local analysts, it provides the most accurate data, updated regularly according to the data changes noted by the whole range of statistics sources. It will save the time you would need to track the figures and sources independently and will provide you with thorough analysis.

Summary
EU's decision to set target date for the launch of Montenegro's accession talks and Montenegro's success in keeping budget deficit and public spending within the Maastricht criteria are two of the greatest achievements of the government in 2011, the PM said. The Montenegrin economy has seen a recovery in almost every sector, with projected GDP growth of at least 2.5% in 2011, Luksic noted. Efforts for fiscal consolidation also proved successful as public spending was cut from 47.2% in 2010 to 42.6% of GDP in 2011 and the budget gap has been reduced from 3.9% in 2010 to around 3.3% in 2011. http://bharatbook.com/market-research-reports/business-forecast-outlook-market-research-report/intellinews-montenegro-country-report1.html

In ...
... December, agency S&P said it is affirming its 'BB' long-term and 'B' short-term sovereign credit ratings on Montenegro as the outlook remains negative on risks related to external financing. The credit rating agency expects the economy to grow by less than 1%, given the international economy in 2012. The biggest downside growth risks include the worsening growth outlook in the eurozone or renewed deterioration in bank balance sheets. Tourism, on the other hand, which was spared by the global downturn, is projected to continue supporting growth in the coming years. industry reports

Central bank’s view on next year’s economic growth in Montenegro is that the country will not slip into recession but will likely see a lower economic growth. Current projections indicate a GDP growth of 1.8% for 2012 while the 2012 budget draft envisages a GDP increase of 2%.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW
EBRD cuts Montenegro's growth forecast to 1.9% in 2012
World Bank cuts Montenegro's 2012 growth forecast to 1.8%

REAL SECTOR
1. GDP
2. Inflation
Montenegro's CPI slows to 2.8% y/y in December 2011
Producer price inflation drops to 1% in December 2011
3. Industry and Trade
Montenegro's industrial output posts largest drop in 2 years in December 2011
Montenegro's retail sales rise 17% y/y in December 2011
Montenegro export prices in industry up 7.6% y/y in 2011, import prices up 6.6%
4. Labour Market
Average net wage in Montenegro drops 6% y/y in December
Montenegro's unemployment rate at 11.8% in January 2012
5. Tourism
Montenegro tourist arrivals rise 8.7% y/y in 2011

FISCAL SECTOR
Montenegro's public debt grows to 45.3% of GDP at end-2011
Montenegro fails to meet year-end target after poor budget result in Dec

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
Montenegro's bank assets contract 3.7% y/y in November 2011
Lending activity in Montenegro remains subdued in November 2011
Bank deposits in Montenegro grow 2.3% y/y in November 2011
Eight out of eleven banks in Montenegro generate profits in 2011 - report
Montenegro bourse indices plunge 35% on average in January 2012
EXTERNAL SECTOR
STRUCTURAL REFORMS

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IntelliNews Montenegro Country Report

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