Tea Party Over? Florida Boils Down To Newt Gingrich And Mitt Romney

By Author: Anthony Williams
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Polls show Newt Gingrich taking a commanding lead among Florida Republicans, throwing a wrench into Mitt Romney's carefully constructed 2012 presidential election political machine.

Most recently, a Florida Times-Union survey had Gingrich trouncing Romney 41-17. More ominously for Romney, the late 2012 election November poll showed Herman Cain with 13 percent -- a group of supporters highly unlikely to shift to the former Massachusetts governor now that Cain is out of the race.

But Cain did not deliver a widely rumored endorsement of Gingrich on Monday, and several tea party and conservative groups tell Sunshine State News that they will adamantly oppose the former House speaker.

At this point, Gingrich's strongest appeal appears to be that he is not Romney.

"The question is, will Newt create a large enough pool of voters to be able to beat Romney," says Roger Stone, a veteran GOP strategist.

"The polls show that is happening -- at least for now."

Stone is skeptical of the depth and breadth of Romney's support in the weeks leading up to Florida's 2012 election Jan. 31 primary.

"What ...
... Romney has in Florida is a bunch of country-club Bush Republicans more interested in cocktail parties than primary day," Stone said.

Billie Tucker, chairwoman of the First Coast Tea Party, said the Republican Party needs someone "to kick Barack Obama's butt," and she believes Gingrich is that man.

"People want passion. We don't want milquetoast," she said.

Tucker said the young members of her Jacksonville-based tea party "fell in love with Gingrich before the older people did." She said they appreciate his owning up to previous personal and political mistakes -- of which critics have pointed to several. (See Sunshine State News story here.)

Before Cain's withdrawal, Tucker said, "The tea party was split. Some wanted a Newt-Cain ticket. Some wanted a Cain-Newt ticket."

The common ground was that they did not want Romney.

But despite Gingrich's gaudy poll numbers, the Georgian is still no lock with conservatives in Florida.

"Most of us this morning were asking, 'What is wrong with the Republicans in this country?' relates Diane Kepus, of the Deland 912 patriot group.

"I have the utmost respect for Oklahoma Sen. Tom Coburn, who came out stating there was no way he would ever support Gingrich," Kepus said.

Coburn, who served in the House when Gingrich was speaker, has been quoted as calling Gingrich a poor leader. Other Republicans are said to be ready to amplify on that complaint.

Illustrating the sharp ideological splits Gingrich creates, two leading members of Tea Party Manatee have two different opinions on his 2012 election candidacy.

Judi Hood said, "Newt Gingrich's campaign has reached out to some of our group, but many of us will never vote for him or Romney or Rick Perry.

"Only the uninformed and misguided would vote for Gingrich or Romney."

On the other hand, Janet Mixon offered that the Bradenton-based tea group conducted a straw poll a few weeks back and "Newt was at the top of the list."

Unlike Romney, Gingrich has virtually no organization in the state.

Kurt Kelly, a former state legislator who ran for Congress last year, is helping the Gingrich 2012 election campaign, but he directed specific questions to a coordinator in Atlanta.

"His support is overwhelming. It won't take long to organize," said Kelly, who has been working to "lock down" primary voters around the state.

Gingrich's Atlanta-based coordinator told Sunshine State News that the campaign was not ready to announce its leadership team in Florida.

State Rep. Scott Plakon, R-Longwood, was an early Cain supporter and a co-chair of Cain's Florida campaign.

Borrowing a phrase from his erstwhile favorite, Plakon said he was "reassessing" his support going forward.

"People are talking to a number of the other campaigns. There has been no block movement. They'll be making their own decision," said Plakon, who added that he intends to call Cain for an endorsement of his own re-election bid.

Another Cain co-chair, former St. Petersburg mayor Rick Baker, did not return a phone message.

Victoria Baer, a Jacksonville conservative associated with several local tea groups, said the Republican Party has done a lousy job of vetting its candidates.

"Right now, the tea party just needs to stop voting for the top Republican," she said. Baer's choice?

"Ron Paul. I wish people would stop pretending he doesn’t exist. He is No. 2 in the polls in Iowa."

Sarah Rumpf, a Florida Republican strategist, blogger and early Cain supporter, expressed "a sense of resignation about Gingrich."

"Some die-hard people are hoping Perry can redeem himself. People aren't discussing Romney at all. Somebody needs to come out with strong ideas and court the grass roots," she said.

A tea party activist, who declined to be identified by name, said Gingrich has earned his stripes with the movement.

Noting the Georgian's attendance at several tea gatherings in Florida, this tea partier said, "When we started the Contract From America, Newt was one of the first who signed it."

"We never heard anything from Romney."

Though the anybody-but-Romney theme is playing for Gingrich, he has yet to solidify the support of a new Internet-based coalition, NotMittRomney.com.

"No endorsement yet," reports the group's co-founder, Ali Akbar.

But Akbar said Cain's departure brings things a step closer.

"It means the field has been narrowed, and the clear, viable single alternative will present him or herself earlier than our original plan calculated for [after the Florida primary].

"Our odds for beating the supposed 'inevitable nominee' just more than doubled."

Ultimately, a 2012 election party choice that boils down to the flip-flopping author of Romneycare and a flip-flopping, baggage-laden Washington insider like Gingrich speaks sobering volumes about the efficacy of the tea party movement as a force for principled, small-government conservatism.

Writing in the Boston Globe, Joshua Green stated:

"Odd as it seems, a Republican primary that began as a contest to accommodate [tea party] activists -- bending mainstream figures like Tim Pawlenty into painful contortions -- now seems likely to end as a desperate bid to find someone -- anyone! -- who isn’t Romney.

"If the search ends with Gingrich, it will be a measure of just how much the tea party has deceived itself."

The original article by Kenric Ward was published in Sunshine State News on Dec. 6, 2011. Sunshine State News focuses on the relationship between politics and business in Florida, speaking to an audience of lawmakers, lobbyists, business and opinion leaders, and all Floridians who expect their leaders to make common-sense decisions. SSN fills a void as the only Florida news outfit that believes free-market, less-government solutions will address the problems challenging our state. For more Mitt Romney News or coverage of the 2012 Election, visit Sunshine State News. Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.