Investors Are Being Encouraged To Continue In London

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Investors are being encouraged to continue pouching their savings into the stock market after shares in London recovered all the losses incurred since September 11. The advice comes despite America's Dow Jones industrial average tumbling on Friday after a case of anthrax was diagnosed in New York. Consumer spending in America also slumped by more than three times economists' predictions in September, pushing share prices back below pre-attack levels.

The FTSE 100 index of Britain's largest companies closed on Friday at 5 145 -- up 112 points on its September 10 close. The Dow in New York rallied late on to close at 9 344, down 66 points. Although most experts are predicting Tag Heuer Replica Watches further volatility in the coming months, they remain cautiously optimistic that the FTSE 100 will begin a sustained, if rocky, rally towards 5 500 by the end of the year. The immediate economic outlook is still bleak. Some commentators predict that America will endure a recession lasting six months. They also expect Britain to suffer a sharp ...
... slowdown. But analysts say the market is well placed to absorb any further bad news.

Sharp economic downturns can, perversely, be good for the market because they force firms to be more cost-efficient. Therefore, any announcements about rising unemployment or corporate streamlining could have a positive effect on shares. Of more concern to private investors is the impact that another terrorist attack would have on shares. If this were to happen, the market would almost certainly slump again. But history suggests that it would, once again, make up any lost ground within weeks.

Experts are therefore urging private investors not to repeat their past mistakes, when they waited for a sustained rally before feeling confident enough to invest. Cross said, "It's peculiar that investors feel it's safer to invest after the market has risen by 25% than when it has fallen by 25 %. Common sense suggests that the opposite would be more appropriate." Mike Len off of Garrard, the stockbroker, said that if the market hit 5 500 and remained around that level for some weeks, it would be a sign that further, sustained gains were imminent. He said, "Getting back to 5 500 would be important, because if the index stayed at that level, the psychology of the market would change substantially. Defensive shares would become too expensive and big investors would start moving into value stocks, which are the type of firms that do well in an economic recovery. "

But private investors could be forgiven for their pessimistic mood, as nearly all Isa buyers have suffered big losses. But investors can take Replica Watches some comfort from the fact that the next three months are traditionally the best-performing period of the year for the stock market. David Schwartz, the stock-market historian, said the index almost always rose in the period between November and April. Since 1974, the market went up on 24 occasions between November and April, by an average of 15%, and dropped only three times. Schwartz said, "It's no guarantee for this year, but history is on our side.