Analysts Say Those Vital Signs Will See Bush Through The Rough Times

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President Bush touched off a firestorm of criticism from congressional Democrats, civil rights groups and newspaper editorialists Wednesday when he decided to intervene in a Supreme Quart case challenging racial preferences in University of Michigan admissions policy. The howls of protest were quick and loud. Judging from the noise, one might conclude that this president is in big political trouble as he looks to reelection in 2004. After all, with public uncertainty about the economy, the possibility of war with Iraq, increased tensions with North Korea dominating the headlines, and Democrats hurling brickbats at Bush for everything from his economic stimulus plan that they say favors the rich to what they see as his abandonment of minorities by opposing the Michigan case, he would appear to be poised on the brink of political disaster.

But is he? Not yet. His standing with the public is stronger than outward poll numbers suggest. Much was made this past week of a USA Links Of London Charms TODAY-CNN-Gallup Poll that showed Bush's job approval rating dipping ...
... below 60% for the first time since Sept. 11, to 58% . That caused many to comment that he might be following down a path his father previously trod. The elder Bush achieved success in the Persian Gulf War but saw his job ratings erode steadily, largely because of what many read as an inadequate response to a slumping economy. He was denied a second term. But for the younger Bush to be in danger of a repeat, he would have to do something that breaks the bond he has formed with the American public on a personal level since Sept. 11 that transcends his positions on various issues.

The same USA TODAY poll that showed Bush's overall job-approval slipping, but still good, also found that his so-called political "vital signs" are remarkably strong. They suggest that regardless of whether people agree or disagree with Bush's handling of specific problems or issues, he retains a high degree of respect, trust and support for pushing boldly ahead as he sees fit. Most who said the qualities do not apply are Democrats, who more than likely are not going to vote for Bush anyway. It is the swing voters that Bush must hold, and the poll shows that most independents rank Bush positively on these measures. He also gets some pretty strong ratings from women, who traditionally lean toward Democratic presidential candidates.

So when Bush makes a bold decision to fight terrorism, oppose the Michigan admissions policy or force Saddam Hussein to disarm, many may disagree. But they rate him high for leading, which, after all, is what we elect our presidents Links Of London to do. And most see him as honest, willing to get along with his political opponents and an effective government manager. Analysts say those vital signs will see Bush through the rough times.