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The Chinese Economy No Hard Landing In Sight
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Despite the skeptics’ insistence that the beginning of the end is nigh for China, the hard facts belie such assumptions. It is an opinion based on the thinking that growth such as China's is frankly unsustainable. And yes, there has undoubtedly been a slowdown. However, in 2013 China's GDP will be approximately $US9 trillion. This makes its economy more than half the size of the United States and half as big again as Japan's. It is three times the size of Britain's and half as big again as Russia, Brazil and India combined. This is hardly a recipe for disaster. With inflation running at around 3%, a currency that's rising against the dollar and GDP growth of 7.5%, China is boosting the world's GDP by $US1 trillion a year.
First Choice Properties China has assiduously studied the figures. With better growth a signal coming from the urban housing market and data for monthly retail sales suggesting that consumption is holding up well, they see a healthy picture. These are all signs that China is rebalancing and the current-account surplus has declined accordingly to 3% of GDP. Take into account that this was more than 10% before 2008 and you can begin to doubt the skeptics. It is true that investors on the Shanghai Index have been hit, but their losses are mainly on past winners. As China moves away from its reliance on exports, a new breed of winning investments will emerge. The advice of First Choice Properties China is that the country's economy is still growing? Just in a different way.
It is short-sighted to even consider writing it off as a serious contender for investment. Indeed, some experts predict that China's economy has only just begun to impress the world and the best is yet to come.
China has a tremendous comparative advantage in terms of cheap labor and low production costs which has given Chinese goods an edge over those of other countries in the world markets. Even when the rest of the world was suffering through the economic downturn, China's growth was still running at over 9%. In 2011, China was forecast to account for one-third of total global growth.
In the real-estate sector, 2009 saw prices drop all over the world, But not in China. In China the government injected a massive $585 billion stimulus into the property market that helped property prices continue to rocket upwards, as developers and house buyers piled in to make their investments.
Prices passed the 10% growth rate mark last year on the back of heavy investment which resulted in another success story for the emerging market investor.
In terms of tourism, China has a universal appeal. It mixes the ancient and the modern in a massive area of nearly 10 million square kilometers.
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