Germany: between hopes and concerns.

Crisis, what crisis? So it seemed to Josef Ackermann said in Frankfurt to present the results of the fourth quarter of 2009 that gave Deutsche Bank a much net income millionaire, just 1.3 billion euros after 1.39 billion in the previous quarter.
A development that after the heavy loss of 4 billion euros in 2008 allowed the accused Deutsche Bank carried out throughout 2009 net earnings for a total of 5 billion euros, mainly with the Investment Banking Division. The biggest German bank, has every reason to look with confidence to future quarters even if you advertise a recovery still fragile and still full of risks and uncertainties. Risks and uncertainties that many other German banks, especially those in the public sector, much of the Deutsche Bank have reason to fear.
The German economy this year will face a wave of corporate bankruptcies that primarily affect the small-medium industries. Many companies already struggling with the problem of insufficient coverage of equity and reduced liquidity will have difficulties to follow the recovery of foreign demand and to finance the procurement of production materials. In recent weeks, has almost stopped talking to Germany of the credit squeeze by banks, but the problem is ever present and continues to cause considerable difficulties for companies.
Creditreform, the largest German credit rating agency, forecasts for this year in Germany a significant increase in corporate insolvencies, up to 38,000 up to 40,000 and even after that in 2009 because of financial crisis and cyclical 34,300 companies were no longer able to honor their payment obligations. The various economic programs agreed by the government in Berlin in recent months has prevented many businesses to do the same fate, but it is noted that state intervention is also a downside in that they delay the necessary process of renewal.
Surely this is the case of the automotive sector, where even in Germany, as indeed everywhere in the world, there are production overcapacity that for Germany in particular in the case of Opel are causing delays in the necessary consolidation process that is already too long is waiting. Even the German sector of components for the car will not be spared by a strong wave of insolvencies. This will have painful consequences for the labor market in which we already are seeing a worrying increase in unemployment, especially among young people. Luckily so far the crisis in Germany has spared the area of private consumption in 2009 has ensured a positive impulse to the German gross domestic product otherwise hit hard by the decline in exports. The GfK, one of the largest institutions in the world of market research, but believes that in 2010 the crisis reached full well the German consumer and that the effects will be felt especially in the second half of the year. According to GfK, 54% of Germans has since been directly reached by the crisis. Half of these people because of the crisis have lost their jobs and look to their future with growing fear. The other half is made up of people who fear they could do the same fate or are retirees who have taken to save wherever possible.
Quality instead of quantity is a bit 'the trend, things may well go in favor of traditional brands. In a completely unexpected way, private consumption in Germany, during what was the biggest recession since World War II to today, have proven somewhat resistant in 2009, an increase of 0.4% over the previous year. We of course also helped the premium for scrapping old cars decided by the government which has thus assured the German car market, registrations starting a new record for the first time a trend toward smaller, more environmentally friendly cars.
Meanwhile, yesterday there was a sudden and unexpected braking of industrial production in Germany in December had been recorded a monthly fall of 2.6% after rising by 0.7% in November. On an annual basis the index (calculated according to working days) showed a contraction of 7.1% from 8% the previous month.
As regards consumption, one of the areas hardest hit has been to the restaurant, where the turnover has decreased by eight per cent, amounting to a loss of more than five billion collection. In essence, the Germans eat more at home and at restaurant or bar to be less frequently or only when absolutely necessary. Surely this is not the case managers of Deutsche Bank, which despite considerable respect for the outcome of the 2009 President Josef Ackermann decided to reduce from now on bonuses.
Luciano Barile.